Daily Plan: Market Review & Focus List (16/3)
Impressive & Encouraging Action Today - Market Overview, Sector & Leading Stock Analysis + 3 Helpful Scans
Hi all! 👋
In this article I will cover:
General Market Overview
The action displayed by leading stocks with TML potential
Individual Sector Analysis - Which groups are breaking down vs showing relative strength
3 Helpful Scans to get potential leaders on our radar
Links to TradingView watchlists
Personal Portfolio Update
Review of today’s focus list
Stocks currently on my focus list with actionable trade ideas
Stockbsessed is neither an investment or financial advisor. Stockbsessed does not provide financial advice and none of the information being provided is to be seen as such.
General Market Overview
I have been advocating for some time now how absolutely imperative it is that a trader does not allow personal thoughts / bias to cloud their judgement and allows emotional decisions to impact their trading system, and that goes both ways. It does not mean that just because we have had a few good days in the market, this is the all clear to go fully long without practising progressive exposure and simply hope for the best - that is gambling and would be treating trading as a hobby rather than as a business.
While we are witnessing some encouraging signs and somewhat of a character change - mostly in the form of individual stock action as select stocks are acting well, we need to keep in mind that this is still very much a news-driven wide-ranging and volatile market environment.
Over the past few sessions, we have seen hidden signs of underlying strength as stocks were reacting well to key areas and finding demand at areas of interest - most of the strong stocks I have been watching closely held their short-term moving averages (10/20EMAs) and had several strong closes (DCRs) over the last couple of sessions. Today that strength was not as hidden with positive breadth metrics (+1554 NYSE) and an encouraging number of successful breakouts.
It is important to note that I do like how the overall thematic is coming together - sentiment is getting very poor with news headlines at the tip of everyone’s tongue and signs of elevated fear starting to show up:
Fear & Greed Index:
$VIX Spike:
Main priority is always risk management - no place for FOMO here and so follow your process at all times, let the setups pull you in and progressive exposure to allow you to size up when deserved.
SPY 0.00%↑ A nice reclaim of the 10EMA which is starting to trend upwards once more to close the session +1.75% on increased volume going out right at the highs - stalling out right under the 20EMA.
QQQ 0.00%↑ Have been highlighting the importance of this DTL we were seeing over the last few sessions and it is a very encouraging sign to see follow-through on the strong action since reacting well to the 50DMA earlier in the week as it closes +2.64% at the highs of the session on increased volume:
IWM 0.00%↑ Small-caps continue showing relative weakness but good action nonetheless as it holds yesterday's low and pushes above it's high of the session to close +1.37% on volume but still below all KMAs:
ARKK 0.00%↑ Also mentioned this DTL as an area to watch heading into today's session and is quite encouraging that it was taken out so quick with a simultaneous reclaim of all the key moving averages! Closes strong up +3.07%, now watching the key area around 41:
Leading Stocks Analysis
I am linking the leaders watchlist in tradingview for your convenience, here
Average component above: +4.04%
Always a good sign when only one of the stocks I track above closes negative on the session… look no further than the extremely strong daily closing ranges and impressive % gains all over to understand that buyers were in clear control:
NVDA 0.00%↑ Major outperformance today as it clears the 228-242 range we have been focusing on over the last few session - the recent strong DCRs and demand showing up at key areas such as the 10 and 20 EMAs were clues to the underlying strength and that buyers were in control:
MBLY 0.00%↑ Reacted very well to the 50DMA earlier in the week as it found clear demand there, then had a shakeout below the 10/20EMA in yesterday's session and followed through on that recent strength with a DTL breakout today to close +5.72% at the highs of the session:
ANET 0.00%↑ Continues to show clear leadership potential as it follows through on this base breakout with additional strength to close +5.77% on x1.99 rVOL:
ACLS 0.00%↑ Reclaims the 10/20EMAs and closes strong on the session +4.92% going out at the highs and finding resistance at this key area right around the 130 region:
LSCC 0.00%↑ Semis continue to show raw strength and leadership capabilities after finding buyers at the 20EMA once more and hitting new highs - some more tightness here would be ideal but great strength so far:
ALGM 0.00%↑ Continues trending nicely as it reacts well to the 20EMA once more and pushes above this DTL mentioned previously to close strong above all KMAs up +3.51%:
Individual Sector Analysis
I am linking the sectors watchlist in tradingview for your convenience, here
Average component above: +1.47%
Similar to individual stocks above, one does not need to look much further than the overwhelming difference between sectors up on the session vs down on the session, the extremely strong daily closing ranges all around further emphasize how buyers were truly in control today:
SMH 0.00%↑ Showing clear relative strength against other industries and indicating potential leadership if an uptrend were to resume - some strong components here including the liquid leader NVDA 0.00%↑ contributing to this strong action as it closes +4% on x1.82 rvol:
XLK 0.00%↑ Thoughts from yesterday's article attached below:
Pushed above the key DTL we mentioned and went on to close strong on the session, +2.81% on increased volume after reacting well to the 50DMA earlier on in the week:
XLY 0.00%↑ Gets a quick pop as it pushes right above this DTL and out of this short-formation to reclaim the 10EMA and close +1.81% on increased volume but stalls out right under the 20EMA / 50DMA:
XLC 0.00%↑ Seeing recent strength on increased volume here as it reclaims all key moving averages that are also trending upwards - currently at an area of previous resistance with a key area around the 59 region, may have somewhat of a cup and handle look on the weekly:
Scans
52 Week highs
9 Million breakout
+10% Breakout
Personal Portfolio Update
Setup: Descending Trend Line (DTL) Break
Entry: 124.67
P/L: +2.17%
Had this on today’s focus list and opted for a small position to test the waters after being mostly cash for an extended period of time. Really liked the evident RS this has been showing since its +22% earnings gap-up and how well-controlled the following pullback was, only just coming down to the 10EMA and finding additional demand there quickly:
Like how this weekly chart is coming together in this recent IPO:
Mentioned this setup in realtime on twitter:
Now managing risk vs today’s low.
Review of Today’s Focus List
This is how the setups that triggered from today’s focus list closed:
Focus List
Reminder to NOT force anything and rather wait for your edge to show up clearly!
FSLR 0.00%↑ Main focus here as it continue to hold the 10EMA on a closing basis as it pulled back in a controlled manner following a quick +30% run on earnings:
IOT 0.00%↑ Another one showing some strength with a positive earnings report as it closes above the 10EMA and right below this DTL:
BLPH 0.00%↑ Clear momentum leader as it moved +500% in just 9 days and now consolidating well in this overall flag as it starts to tighten up above the 10EMA and below this DTL:
ACMR 0.00%↑ Supported several times this week at key moving averages indicating buyers showed up when they needed to as it now consolidates below this DTL:
TH 0.00%↑ Similar structure to above and like how the moving averages are tightening up with price, may be getting ready to push out quickly:
MNSO 0.00%↑ Continues trending nicely above the 10/20EMA with nice volume characteristics and tightness as it consolidates below this DTL:
RIOT 0.00%↑ Had ran +140% to start the year showing that it has the necessary momentum, now has KMAs trending upwards as price sits at the upper end of this base:
IQ 0.00%↑ A positive reaction to the 50DMA with a strong close in today's session and like how tight it is getting right below the DTL: