Daily plan: market review & focus list (25/4)
Back to 100% Cash - Market Overview, Industry & Leading Stock Analysis + 4 Helpful Scans
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General Market Overview
Horrible closes at the lows of the session as the indexes undergo distribution with selling on volume - broad-based participation to the downside with negative breadth metrics on the session. SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ approaching the 50-day moving average.
If anyone makes it seem like they have everything figured out and never make any mistakes in the market, they don’t. I’m pretty disappointed in myself to see that gains I’ve built up over the last couple of weeks got wiped out in today’s session.
Got caught off guard in ASRT 0.00%↑ which gapped-down around -20% on news to acquire Spectrum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. My mistake wasn’t getting caught in a news-driven gap-down which is out of control - my mistake was in not following my process and plan in yesterday’s session:
For the most part of this year I have been completely focused on taking profits while I have them and running up small wins
When I saw several stocks in my portfolio working very well and exceeding my expectations by continuing to run up very well after selling partials into strength, I made the decision of not selling a partial in ASRT 0.00%↑ and holding my full position overnight
Had I followed my previous plan of selling at least partial positions into strength - I would not have gotten so effected by the gap-down
Regardless, the most important thing is how you walk away from such a situation:
I know that when the market is healthy - I can really press the gas and go for it. My stock selection and risk management this year has been pretty good for the most part and it is important to not let one bad day get to me too much
Process and adapt - there is no point walking away from such a situation frustrated and angry. No point in blaming the market or news. This business is just you vs you at all times. Learn from your mistakes and adapt your process moving forward:
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
This is a life-long journey in the market and you must be able to learn from your experiences.
Seeing the technical breaks in the market today along with the overall portfolio pressure on the day - I opted to close out all open positions, clear my mind and wait for a fresh round of sound setups when the market is ready once more:
SPY 0.00%↑ Breaks below the last 3 session's lows and loses an important area around 410 - gets rejected at the 10EMA intraday and slices through the 20EMA to close -1.59% right at the lows of the session. Want to see if buyers come in around previous resistance (405) and the 50-day moving average but clearly a character change here:
QQQ 0.00%↑ Was seeing this potentially setting up below its descending trend line but sellers came in hard to lose the 20EMA and close below right at previous resistance and below 310. Approaching the rising 50-day MA here:
IWM 0.00%↑ Undergoes distribution on volume and now back below the 10 and 20EMAs and now below all declining key moving averages. Now heading back to the lower-end of this range around 171:
ARKK 0.00%↑ Follows through to the downside since losing this key trend line with a -3.26% close on the session. Key moving averages now trending downwards along with price:
Leading Stocks Analysis
Average: -3.47%
I am linking the leaders watchlist in tradingview for your convenience, here
FSLR 0.00%↑ Still acting well and the only stock from the above list to close positive on the session. Want to see a reclaim of the 10 and 20EMAs while simultaneously filling the recent gap-down:
DUOL 0.00%↑ Acting well with a strong close with this shakeout below the 10EMA as buyers stepped in right around the 20EMA:
AI 0.00%↑ Inside day with a close at the lows of the session. Below key moving averages which are trending downwards along with price. Now down around ~26% from the recent rejection at 24:
ANET 0.00%↑ Pulls back to the 50-day moving average to close poorly right at the lows of the session and -1.90%. Some say the first pullback to the 50DMA after a base breakout is a gift but we will see whether it loses this area which opens the door to further weakness:
PERI 0.00%↑ Now the second close in a row below the 50DMA with this -2.13% inside day. 10EMA crossing below 20EMA which shows momentum is picking up to the downside:
MBLY 0.00%↑ Still acting well all things considered as it closes -2.20% and still above the 10EMA while consolidating under resistance ~46.20
ELF 0.00%↑ Follows through down since losing this key trend line I have been mentioning over the last few sessions. Watching for buyers to show up at the 10EMA:
NVDA 0.00%↑ Weak along with semiconductors in general as sellers have been in control here since the rejection around 280 - loses the 20EMA in today's session to close -2.96% right at the lows of the session. Looking for buyers to show up around the 50-day:
MAXN 0.00%↑ Acting well and not giving too much back with this inside day as it closes -3.09% and allows the 10EMA to catch up to price:
MELI 0.00%↑ Loses an important area ~1254 to close poorly on the session at the lows. Approaching the 50-day moving average and will be looking up for buyers to show up in this area:
ONON 0.00%↑ Nothing broken here just yet as still holding above previous resistance and able to close (32) and the 10EMA. Has been very strong recently and will be watching closely for additional setups after closing it today:
AMD 0.00%↑ Have been mentioning the importance of this area ~88.50 / 50-day moving average and comes as no surprise to see follow-through to the downside with short-term moving averages now pointing to the downside:
ASUR 0.00%↑ Inside day and down with follow through to the downside on volume to close -5.52% and below the 50-day:
RMBS 0.00%↑ Not a great sign at all when a recent relative strength leader loses a key area of previous resistance and the 50-day moving average with selling on volume to close -6.85%:
In the following sections of the daily plan I go over additional research in preparation for the next session:
✅ Individual sector analysis
✅ 4 Scans with results to get stocks with leadership qualities on our radar
✅ Personal Portfolio Update
✅ Stocks currently on my focus list with actionable trade ideas - The best setups from a risk/reward perspective
Individual Sector Analysis
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